Will home prices fall further in 2026? A new national housing outlook suggests that home-price growth may remain limited, but a slower national market does not automatically mean home values will fall in Ventura County.
According to Cotality’s November 3, 2026, Home Price Index release, U.S. single-family home prices rose 1.7% year over year in September, while falling 0.3% compared with August. The company’s forecast points to annual national home-price growth of just 0.9% by September 2027.
For homeowners in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, and Ojai, the important question is how local conditions compare with that national outlook. Inventory, buyer demand, competing listings, property condition, and neighborhood-level sales can all influence what buyers are willing to pay.
I’m Roylin Downs of The RoylinSells Group. I’ve served buyers and sellers across Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County since 1990. My goal is to help homeowners make informed real estate decisions based on their property, their priorities, and the market they are actually selling in, rather than relying on national headlines alone.
Here is what the latest forecast means, what local sellers should monitor, and how to prepare for the months ahead.
1. What Does the Latest National Home-Price Forecast Say?
Cotality expects U.S. home-price growth to remain modest, rather than continuing at a rapid pace. Its latest report shows that prices were still higher than a year earlier in September 2026, even though they dipped from the previous month.
Cotality’s November 3 report provides three important figures:
- 1.7% annual growth: U.S. single-family home prices in September 2026 compared with September 2025.
- 0.3% monthly decline: Prices fell from August to September 2026.
- 0.9% forecast growth: Cotality projects annual national home-price growth at this rate by September 2027.
These figures suggest that national appreciation is slowing. However, a monthly decline does not by itself establish a long-term downward trend, and slower appreciation is not the same as a widespread price crash.
The forecast also reflects significant differences among regions. Some states continued to record strong annual gains, while others experienced declines. That variation is a reminder that housing markets respond to local economic conditions, available homes, affordability, and buyer demand.
For Ventura County sellers, the takeaway is straightforward: do not assume your home’s value will rise quickly just because prices increased in the past, but do not assume a national forecast means your property must lose value either.
2. Does Slower National Growth Mean Ventura County Home Prices Will Fall?
Not necessarily. National forecasts cannot determine the future sale price of an individual home in Ventura County. Local data can move differently from national averages, and even nearby neighborhoods can experience different market conditions.
For example, Redfin’s Ventura County housing market data reported a median sale price of approximately $874,000 for the three months ending September 2026, up 3.7% from the same period a year earlier. The same report recorded 513 homes sold in September, compared with 496 a year earlier.
Those figures provide useful context, but they do not guarantee that every home or community experienced the same change. The reported median can be influenced by the types of homes sold during the period, while an individual property’s result depends on its own characteristics and competition.
It is also important to recognize that different housing data providers use different methodologies, property categories, and timeframes. Their figures may not match exactly, so comparisons should be made carefully.
If you are planning to sell in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, or Ojai, ask your agent to review recent sales in your specific area rather than relying exclusively on a national forecast or countywide median.
A home in excellent condition with features buyers value may compete differently from a similar home that needs repairs. Likewise, the number of comparable properties available nearby can influence how much attention a listing receives.
The most useful question is not simply whether prices are falling nationally. It is how buyers are responding to homes like yours in your local market.
3. What Local Market Indicators Should Ventura County Sellers Watch?
Watch recent comparable sales, active listings, price reductions, and time on market to understand how your home fits into today’s competition. These indicators provide more actionable information for pricing decisions than a national forecast on its own.
Here are four useful things to review with your agent.
Recent comparable sales
Look at homes that have actually sold and are reasonably similar to yours in location, size, condition, layout, and features. Recent closed sales help establish a practical reference point for your asking price.
Active competition
Buyers compare your home with properties they can tour and purchase now. If similar homes offer updated kitchens, more usable outdoor space, or lower asking prices, you need to understand how your property compares.
Price reductions
Price reductions can indicate that some sellers are adjusting their expectations or responding to limited buyer interest. They do not prove that every home needs a price cut, but they are worth examining alongside comparable sales and showing activity.
Time on market
If comparable properties are taking longer to sell, you may need to allow more time for marketing and buyer decisions. If a well-priced home in your neighborhood attracts strong interest quickly, that may tell a different story.
Review these indicators together. For instance, a property taking longer to sell may reflect its price, condition, location, marketing, or a combination of factors. No single metric explains every result.
The goal is to recognize what buyers are doing now and respond with a strategy that fits your property.
4. Should You Lower Your Asking Price if Home-Price Growth Slows?
A slowing market does not automatically mean you should lower your asking price. The decision should depend on your home’s competitive position, recent sales, buyer feedback, and the results of your current marketing.
If you are preparing to list, the best starting point is a realistic price based on comparable sales and competing properties. Pricing well above the available evidence can limit buyer interest, even if the home has attractive features.
If your home is already on the market, look at the response so far. Consider:
- Are buyers scheduling showings?
- Are comparable homes attracting more interest?
- Have similar listings reduced their asking prices?
- What feedback are buyers and their agents providing?
- Have new competing homes entered the market?
- Does the listing price reflect your home’s current condition and features?
A lack of offers does not always mean the price is the only issue. Presentation, accessibility for showings, property condition, and marketing can also affect results. However, if the evidence consistently suggests that buyers see better value elsewhere, discussing a price adjustment may make sense.
Avoid making a change based on one comment or a national headline alone. Review the evidence with your agent and decide whether to adjust the price, improve the presentation, or change another part of the selling strategy.
A well-supported price is designed to attract qualified interest while taking your selling goals into account.
5. How Can Sellers Make Their Homes More Competitive Without Overspending?
Focus first on improvements that help buyers see the home’s condition, functionality, and value clearly. You do not necessarily need a major renovation to improve a property’s presentation.
When buyers have several homes to compare, clean and well-maintained spaces can help them evaluate a property more easily. Before committing to expensive upgrades, consider practical preparation steps.
- Declutter and clean: Make rooms easier to navigate and help buyers focus on the home’s features.
- Address visible maintenance issues: Repair minor problems where appropriate and seek professional advice for concerns that require specialist attention.
- Improve curb appeal: Tidy landscaping, clear pathways, and make the entryway welcoming.
- Highlight natural light and usable space: Open blinds where practical and arrange furniture to show how rooms function.
- Prepare for listing photography: Ensure the home is clean, organized, and ready to be photographed.
- Keep documentation organized: Gather available records for repairs, maintenance, and improvements.
Not every project will deliver the same benefit. A costly renovation may not be necessary if competing homes are selling well without it, while an obvious maintenance problem could distract buyers from the property’s strengths.
Ask your agent to help prioritize improvements based on the home’s condition, the likely buyer pool, and the current competition. The objective is to make sensible choices, not spend money simply because the housing outlook feels uncertain.
6. What Should Homeowners in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, and Ojai Do Next?
Start with a property-specific market review before making a major decision about when to sell or how to price your home. Each community and property type can have its own competitive conditions, so a tailored review is more useful than assuming the same strategy works everywhere.
If you own a home in Ventura, ask how recent sales compare with current listings in your neighborhood. If your property is in Oxnard or Camarillo, examine the homes most likely to attract the same buyers. In Thousand Oaks or Ojai, consider the relevant local competition and the characteristics that matter most to buyers looking in those areas.
Your next steps will depend on your circumstances:
If you plan to sell soon: Review recent comparable sales, current listings, and any preparation that could improve your home’s presentation.
If you are considering selling in the next few months: Monitor local market activity and start preparing the home, gathering records, and discussing pricing expectations with your agent.
If you are unsure whether to sell now or wait: Consider your personal timeline, financial needs, housing plans, and the costs of holding the property. A national forecast alone cannot tell you which timing is best for your situation.
It is also worth remembering that the highest possible asking price is not necessarily the best strategy if it causes your home to remain on the market longer than expected. Your goals, likely buyer demand, and competing listings should all be part of the decision.
How Roylin Downs Helps Sellers Navigate a Changing Market
A national housing forecast can raise important questions, but turning that information into a practical selling decision requires a closer look at your property and local competition.
As an AI-Certified Agent, I use modern tools to help organize property information, prepare marketing materials, and communicate clearly throughout the selling process. Technology can support the work, but it does not replace local knowledge, careful review of comparable sales, or an understanding of your priorities.
With real estate experience dating back to 1990 across Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County, I help sellers consider how their home is positioned, which preparation steps may be worthwhile, and how to approach pricing in light of the available evidence.
Whether you are selling in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, or Ojai, the goal is to develop a strategy around your home and your circumstances, not simply follow a national headline.
Conclusion: Focus on Your Local Market, Not Just the Forecast
Cotality’s latest outlook suggests that U.S. home-price growth will remain modest, with a projected 0.9% annual gain by September 2027. That points to a slower national market, but it does not establish that home prices will fall across Ventura County.
For local homeowners, the more useful indicators are recent comparable sales, active listings, price reductions, time on market, and buyer response to properties like yours.
Before setting or adjusting your asking price, review those factors with your agent. A thoughtful, property-specific strategy can help you understand your options and make a more informed decision about selling.
Thinking about selling your home in Ventura County? Let’s review your local competition and discuss a strategy that fits your goals.
Contact Roylin Downs and The RoylinSells Group today.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Will home prices fall in Ventura County before the end of 2026?
A national forecast cannot determine whether home prices will fall in Ventura County before year-end. Cotality reported that U.S. single-family home prices rose 1.7% year over year in September 2026 but declined 0.3% from August. Local prices can behave differently, so review recent sales and current competition in your specific community.
2. What is Cotality forecasting for home prices?
In its November 3, 2026, report, Cotality projected that annual U.S. home-price growth would reach 0.9% by September 2027. Its September 2026 data showed 1.7% year-over-year growth and a 0.3% monthly decline. These figures indicate slower national appreciation, not a guarantee of falling prices in every market.
3. Should I wait until 2027 to sell my Ventura County home?
There is no single best answer for every homeowner. Your decision should account for your financial circumstances, moving plans, property condition, local competition, and likely buyer demand. Discuss the costs and benefits of your timing options with a real estate professional who can review the market relevant to your home.
4. How do I know if my asking price is too high?
Compare your home with recent sales and similar active listings, then evaluate the response to your marketing. Limited showings, repeated buyer feedback about price, or comparable homes attracting stronger interest may warrant a closer review. Your agent can help determine whether a price adjustment or another change in strategy makes sense.
5. Can my home increase in value if national home-price growth slows?
Yes, it is possible for a local area or individual property to perform differently from the national market. Location, condition, property type, available inventory, and buyer demand can all influence results. However, future appreciation is never guaranteed, so decisions should be based on current evidence rather than assumptions about future prices.
Sources
- Cotality via Business Wire, Home Price Growth Expected to Remain Constrained Through End of 2026, November 3, 2026
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261103333318/en/ - Cotality, All Insights and U.S. Home Price Reports
https://www.cotality.com/insights/all-insights - Redfin, Ventura County Housing Market
https://www.redfin.com/county/358/CA/Ventura-County/housing-market - Realtor.com, Ventura County Housing Market Data
https://www.realtor.com/local/market/california/ventura-county
