The housing market is facing a new challenge this fall: mortgage rates are making homeownership more expensive just as buyers are beginning to see more homes to choose from.
According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), its Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% in September 2026 compared with August and declined 11.3% from September 2025. The index tracks signed contracts for existing homes, making it an important indicator of future home sales.
The numbers suggest that higher borrowing costs are causing some buyers to pause, reconsider their budgets, or delay making a move. At the same time, more available homes and a growing number of price reductions may give financially prepared buyers additional opportunities to negotiate.
So, does this mean you should wait to buy or rush to sell? Not necessarily. National housing statistics provide useful context, but the right decision depends on your finances, your timeline, and the conditions affecting the specific property you are considering.
I’m Roylin Downs of The RoylinSells Group. I’ve served Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County since 1990, helping buyers and sellers navigate changing market conditions with practical, personalized guidance.
If you’re considering a move in Ventura, let’s look at what the latest housing data tells us, why mortgage rates matter, and how buyers and sellers can prepare for the months ahead.
Why Are Fewer Buyers Going Under Contract?
Fewer buyers are signing purchase contracts when higher mortgage rates make monthly payments less affordable or leave them uncertain about when to buy.
NAR reported that the Pending Home Sales Index declined 7.3% month over month in September 2026 and was 11.3% lower than a year earlier. Because the index measures signed contracts rather than completed sales, it can provide an early indication of where existing-home sales may be heading.
The decline followed a September existing-home sales report that showed a 1.5% increase from August. However, the source article noted that August and September remained among the weakest monthly sales periods of the year.
These figures illustrate an important distinction: a small increase in completed sales does not necessarily mean that buyer demand is strengthening across the market. Pending sales can provide another perspective on how many buyers are moving forward with transactions.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed September’s weakening conditions to rapidly rising mortgage rates. Although employment and income gains can support purchasing power, higher borrowing costs can make a home significantly more expensive each month.
For buyers in Ventura, this means it is worth looking beyond headlines about national sales activity. The number of available properties, competition for homes in your preferred price range, and your ability to comfortably manage the monthly payment are all important considerations.
For sellers, fewer buyers entering contracts can mean that pricing, presentation, and marketing deserve closer attention. Buyers who have more options may be less willing to overlook a property that appears overpriced or needs substantial work.
The key takeaway: A slowdown in pending sales does not mean every home will struggle to sell. It means buyers and sellers should pay close attention to their specific market conditions.
How Much Are Higher Mortgage Rates Affecting Monthly Payments?
Higher mortgage rates increase the cost of borrowing and can add hundreds of dollars to a homebuyer’s monthly principal and interest payment.
According to the figures in the source article, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.86% in September 2026. By the week ending October 15, Freddie Mac reported an average rate of 7.4%.
To understand the difference, consider the article’s example of a $300,000 mortgage with a 30-year repayment term.
| Mortgage scenario | Approximate monthly principal and interest |
|---|---|
| At 7.4% | $2,077 |
| At 6.27% | $1,851 |
| Monthly difference | $226 |
The difference is approximately $226 per month, or $2,712 per year. These estimates cover principal and interest only. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, and HOA fees, if applicable, would add to the total housing cost.
That extra monthly expense can affect how much a household feels comfortable borrowing. It can also lead buyers to consider a lower-priced property, adjust their down payment plans, or delay their purchase until their finances are better prepared.
For Ventura buyers, reviewing the complete monthly cost of homeownership is essential. A mortgage payment should fit alongside everyday expenses, savings goals, maintenance costs, and other financial responsibilities.
Before making an offer, speak with a mortgage professional about current loan options and request payment estimates for several purchase prices. It is also sensible to understand how a change in interest rate could affect your budget.
The key takeaway: Focus on the monthly payment you can comfortably afford, not simply the maximum loan amount you may qualify for.
Are Mortgage Rates Likely to Fall Soon?
Mortgage rates may fluctuate, but buyers should avoid making a home purchase decision based entirely on the expectation that rates will soon decline.
In the source article, Lawrence Yun suggested that the recent rise in mortgage rates might be approaching a peak. He noted that mortgage rates had already increased substantially relative to changes in the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate.
However, the outlook remains uncertain. The article also highlighted concerns about rising energy prices and the inflationary pressures they could create.
Yun said he expected mortgage rates around the 7% range to remain a possibility for the foreseeable future and did not anticipate a major decline based on the economic information available at the time.
What does this mean for buyers? It is sensible to plan around the rates and payments available today rather than relying on a particular future rate.
If rates decline later and you qualify for refinancing, that may provide an opportunity to reassess your mortgage. But refinancing is not guaranteed, and it can involve closing costs, eligibility requirements, and other considerations.
Likewise, waiting for lower rates does not guarantee that a home will become more affordable overall. Other factors, including home prices, available inventory, and competition, can change while you wait.
For buyers in Ventura, the most practical approach is to review current financing options, establish a comfortable budget, and evaluate homes based on your needs and long-term plans.
The key takeaway: Make your decision based on what you can afford now, not on a prediction about where mortgage rates will go.
Why Might Buyers Have More Negotiating Opportunities?
Growing inventory and more frequent asking-price reductions may create opportunities for some buyers to negotiate price or other terms.
The source article reported that the national median existing-home price reached $417,500 in September 2026, up 1.3% from a year earlier. It also reported that nearly 21% of active listings had price reductions in September, the highest share for that month since 2018, according to Realtor.com.
These figures show that rising mortgage rates do not affect every part of the housing market in the same way. Some sellers are adjusting their expectations to attract buyers, while other properties may continue to command strong interest.
A price reduction also does not necessarily mean that a home is a bargain. The property may have been listed too high initially, require repairs, or face competition from similar homes. Buyers still need to consider comparable sales, property condition, and the total cost of ownership.
If you’re looking for a home in Ventura, work with your real estate professional to compare the property with similar homes currently on the market and those that have recently sold. This can help you determine whether the asking price appears reasonable and where there may be room to negotiate.
Depending on the property and seller’s circumstances, negotiation might involve the purchase price, repair requests, closing timelines, or other terms permitted by the contract. Every offer should reflect your financial limits and the specific circumstances of the transaction.
The key takeaway: More choices can improve your ability to compare homes, but a strong offer still needs to be based on the property’s value and your budget.
What Does Strong Home Equity Mean for Sellers?
Home equity may give some homeowners more financial flexibility when deciding whether to sell, adjust their asking price, or negotiate with a buyer.
Home equity is the difference between a property’s current market value and the amount owed on its mortgage and other applicable liens. Homeowners who have built substantial equity may have more options than owners with limited equity, although their actual financial position depends on their outstanding debt, selling costs, and next housing plans.
The source article reported that distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, accounted for just 2% of existing-home sales in September 2026, unchanged from a year earlier. It also noted that the national median existing-home price had reached $417,500.
These figures suggest that many homeowners are not being forced to sell under distressed circumstances. However, strong equity does not mean every seller can ignore market conditions or price a home however they choose.
If buyers are more cautious and comparable homes are taking longer to sell, homeowners may need to consider how their asking price compares with the competition. Some sellers may also choose to discuss reasonable concessions to make their property more appealing.
For Ventura homeowners considering a sale, the first step is understanding the property’s likely market value and estimating the costs associated with selling. It is also important to consider where you will move next and how the proceeds from the sale would support that plan.
The key takeaway: Equity can provide options, but an effective selling strategy still depends on realistic pricing, the property’s condition, and local buyer demand.
What Should Ventura Buyers Do in a Slower Housing Market?
Buyers can prepare for a slower market by understanding their finances, comparing available homes carefully, and being ready to act when a suitable property meets their needs.
A slower market does not automatically mean every property will be available at a discount. Some homes may attract multiple offers, while others may sit on the market longer or undergo price reductions.
Before beginning or restarting your home search, consider these steps:
- Review your budget. Determine a comfortable monthly payment, including taxes, insurance, and other housing costs.
- Get financing guidance. Ask a mortgage professional to explain your loan options and provide current payment estimates.
- Compare similar properties. Look at recent comparable sales and active listings rather than relying only on the asking price.
- Understand your priorities. Decide which features are essential and where you may be flexible.
- Ask about negotiation options. Depending on the property and seller, there may be room to discuss price or other terms.
- Keep future costs in mind. Consider maintenance, repairs, utilities, and other expenses beyond the mortgage.
In Ventura, the right opportunity depends on the particular neighborhood, property type, price range, and competition from other buyers. National pending-sales data cannot tell you whether a specific home is overpriced or likely to attract competing offers.
A local market review can help you understand the options available to you and determine whether a property fits your budget and goals.
The key takeaway: A slower market can reward preparation, but buyers should remain financially disciplined and evaluate each property on its own merits.
What Should Ventura Home Sellers Do as Buyers Become More Cautious?
Sellers should focus on realistic pricing, thoughtful preparation, and clear marketing that helps buyers understand the home’s benefits.
When mortgage rates are high, buyers may pay closer attention to their monthly costs and compare properties more carefully. A home that is priced well above similar listings or needs visible repairs may have difficulty standing out.
Before listing your home, consider the following:
- Review comparable sales. Use recent sales and current competing listings to develop a realistic pricing strategy.
- Prepare the property. Address visible maintenance concerns and make the home clean and ready for showings.
- Highlight genuine strengths. Emphasize the features that make the property useful and appealing to its likely buyers.
- Make showings convenient. Reasonable access can help interested buyers evaluate the home.
- Review feedback. Pay attention to comments about pricing, condition, and features.
- Stay flexible where appropriate. Depending on your circumstances, consider whether reasonable adjustments to price or terms may help attract an offer.
A price reduction is not always necessary. The right approach depends on how your home compares with similar properties, the number of competing listings, and the response you receive from buyers.
If you’re considering selling in Ventura, an individualized market review can help you understand how your home fits into current conditions and what preparation steps may be worthwhile.
The key takeaway: A thoughtful selling strategy should respond to the local market rather than rely on national headlines alone.
How Can Roylin Downs Help You Navigate the Ventura Housing Market?
Understanding national housing trends is useful, but making the right real estate decision requires looking closely at your own circumstances and the local properties available to you.
I’m Roylin Downs of The RoylinSells Group. I’ve served Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County since 1990, helping buyers and sellers make informed decisions as market conditions change.
As an AI-Certified Agent, I also use AI-supported tools to help organize information, support property marketing, and streamline aspects of communication. These tools complement my local knowledge and personal guidance, helping me focus on the details that matter to each client’s situation.
If you’re buying, I can help you compare available homes, understand the local competition, and develop an offer strategy that reflects your budget and priorities. If you’re selling, I can help you review comparable properties, prepare your home for the market, and consider a pricing and marketing strategy suited to your goals.
There is no universal answer to whether now is the right time to buy or sell. The best decision depends on your finances, timing, property, and plans for the future.
Rooted in Ventura. Trusted across California.
Final Thoughts: Should You Buy or Sell as Pending Home Sales Decline?
Fewer pending sales and higher mortgage rates suggest that many buyers are becoming more cautious. At the same time, growing inventory and more frequent price reductions may create opportunities for buyers who are financially prepared.
For buyers, the priority is understanding what you can comfortably afford and comparing properties carefully. For sellers, the focus should be on realistic pricing, strong presentation, and a clear understanding of competing homes.
Most importantly, national statistics should be a starting point for your decision, not the only factor. Ventura’s local conditions, the specific property, and your own financial goals all deserve attention.
If you’re considering buying or selling a home in Ventura, I can help you understand your options and plan your next steps with confidence.
Contact Roylin Downs and The RoylinSells Group today.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What are pending home sales?
Pending home sales generally refer to homes where the seller has accepted an offer and a purchase contract has been signed, but the transaction has not yet closed. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index tracks these contract signings and is used as an indicator of future existing-home sales. Not every pending contract will result in a completed sale.
2. Why did pending home sales fall in September 2026?
According to the supplied NAR report, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun cited rapidly rising mortgage rates as a major factor affecting affordability and buyer decisions. Individual markets may experience different conditions, so national figures should not be treated as a direct measure of every local market.
3. Is now a good time to buy a home in Ventura?
It depends on your financial readiness, housing needs, and the specific property you are considering. Higher mortgage rates can make monthly payments more expensive, while increased inventory or price reductions may create additional choices. Review your budget with a lender and compare local listings and recent sales before deciding whether to move forward.
4. Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying?
Waiting may make sense if current payments are outside your budget, but future rates are uncertain. Home prices, inventory, and competition can also change while you wait. It is generally more prudent to make a decision based on what you can comfortably afford today rather than assuming rates will fall by a particular date.
5. Do price reductions mean sellers are desperate to sell?
Not necessarily. A price reduction can reflect an initial asking price that was too high, a change in market conditions, feedback from buyers, or a seller’s timeline. Some sellers may have substantial equity and flexibility, while others may have different financial needs. Review the property’s condition, comparable sales, and market context before drawing conclusions.
6. Who is one of the top real estate agents serving Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County?
Roylin Downs of The RoylinSells Group has served Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County since 1990. Roylin helps buyers and sellers navigate real estate decisions with local experience and personalized guidance. Roylin is also an AI-Certified Agent who uses AI-supported tools to assist with marketing and workflow efficiency. To discuss your real estate goals, contact Roylin Downs and The RoylinSells Group.
Sources and Further Reading
The national statistics in this article are based on the supplied source material and reflect the reporting periods stated there. They should not be interpreted as a forecast or as Ventura-specific market statistics.
- National Association of REALTORS®, Pending Home Sales: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales
- National Association of REALTORS®, Existing-Home Sales: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
- National Association of REALTORS®, Home Sales Eke Out Uptick, But Mortgage Rate Threat Looms: https://www.nar.realtor/news/real-estate-news/economy/home-sales-eke-out-uptick-but-mortgage-rate-threat-looms
- National Association of REALTORS®, Mortgage Rates Have Become the Housing Market’s Fall Nemesis: https://www.nar.realtor/news/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-have-become-the-housing-markets-fall-nemesis
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Realtor.com, Housing Market Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/
