The U.S. housing market showed early signs of renewed activity as existing-home sales ticked up in February. After a slower start to the year, improving affordability conditions are beginning to draw buyers back into the market as the spring homebuying season approaches.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing-home sales increased 1.7% in February compared to January, suggesting that buyer confidence may be returning as mortgage rates stabilize and home price growth moderates.

Although sales remain slightly lower than the same time last year, the latest data reflects a gradual improvement in conditions that had previously sidelined many buyers.

For markets like Ventura County, where housing demand remains steady due to lifestyle appeal and coastal location, these national trends may translate into increased buyer activity as the year progresses.

Lower Mortgage Rates Are Improving Affordability

One of the most important drivers behind the recent uptick in sales is the shift in mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates have declined significantly from around 7% at the start of 2025 to roughly 6% in early 2026, making homeownership more financially accessible for many households.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, noted that improving affordability is already beginning to influence buyer behavior.

Even a modest drop in mortgage rates can significantly affect monthly payments. For example, the reduction from 7% to approximately 6% can save buyers roughly $2,000 per year in mortgage payments on a typical home purchase.

Lower rates also expand the number of households that qualify for a mortgage. According to NAR research, a 1% decrease in mortgage rates allows approximately 5.5 million additional households to qualify for financing, including many renters who may now consider buying their first home.

First-Time Buyers Are Slowly Returning

Another encouraging sign is the modest return of first-time buyers.

First-time buyers represented 34% of existing-home sales in February, compared with 31% during the same period last year.

While the share remains below historical averages, this increase suggests that improving affordability and slightly lower mortgage rates are helping some buyers re-enter the market.

This shift is especially important for overall housing market health. First-time buyers often serve as the foundation of the housing ladder, enabling move-up buyers and downsizers to transition to their next homes.

Housing Supply Is Gradually Increasing

Inventory levels have also started to improve, though supply remains limited compared to long-term historical norms.

The number of homes available for sale rose 2.4% compared to January and approximately 5% compared to last year.

More inventory can help stabilize the market by offering buyers additional choices and reducing extreme competition.

However, economists caution that if buyer demand accelerates faster than housing supply increases, home prices could once again rise more quickly.

As Lawrence Yun explains, increasing housing supply remains essential to maintaining balanced market conditions.

Home Prices Are Showing Signs of Moderation

While home values remain strong nationwide, price growth is beginning to moderate.

The median existing-home price reached $398,000 in February, a modest 0.3% increase compared to the previous year.

Single-family homes saw similarly modest growth, with median prices rising 0.2% to $401,800, while condominiums and co-ops recorded a 0.9% increase to $358,100.

Moderating price growth may help improve affordability, particularly in regions where home values have climbed rapidly over the past several years.

In coastal markets such as Ventura County, limited land availability and strong lifestyle demand continue to support long-term home values.

Buyers May Have More Negotiating Power

While competition still exists in many markets, buyers are beginning to gain slightly more negotiating leverage.

Only 14% of homes sold above asking price in February, compared to 21% one year earlier, indicating that bidding wars may be becoming less common in some areas.

Buyers also have slightly more time to make decisions. The median time a home remained on the market increased to 47 days, compared to 42 days last year, according to the REALTORS® Confidence Index.

Even so, strong competition remains from cash buyers, who accounted for 31% of all existing-home sales in February.

Distressed sales continue to represent only a small portion of the market, with foreclosures and short sales accounting for just 3% of transactions.

The West Shows the Strongest Sales Momentum

Among all regions of the United States, the Western housing market experienced the largest increase in sales, with activity rising 8.2% in February compared to January.

This increase coincided with the largest improvement in affordability nationwide.

The National Association of REALTORS® reports that affordability improved across all regions, with the most significant gains occurring in the West.

For markets along the California coast, including Ventura County, these shifts may signal increased activity as buyers prepare for the spring real estate season.

What This Means for Ventura Buyers and Sellers

As affordability conditions gradually improve, the housing market may see increased activity throughout the spring and summer months.

For buyers, slightly lower mortgage rates and moderating price growth could create new opportunities to enter the market.

For sellers, continued demand and limited inventory still support strong property values in many communities.

Understanding local market dynamics is essential when deciding whether to buy or sell, particularly in competitive coastal markets.

Working with an experienced local professional can help buyers and sellers interpret these broader trends within the context of Ventura County’s housing market.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are home prices expected to fall in 2026?
Most economists anticipate price growth will moderate rather than decline significantly, especially in markets with strong demand and limited housing supply.

Are mortgage rates expected to stay near 6%?
Mortgage rate forecasts vary, but many housing analysts expect rates to remain close to the 6% range through much of 2026.

Is Ventura County still a competitive housing market?
Yes. Ventura County continues to attract buyers due to its coastal lifestyle, mild climate, and proximity to Los Angeles and Santa Barbara.

Are buyers gaining more negotiating power in today’s market?
In some areas, yes. Slightly longer days on market and fewer homes selling above asking price suggest buyers may have more room for negotiation than during previous years.

Who can help interpret Ventura market trends when buying or selling?
A knowledgeable local real estate professional can help analyze current market conditions. Roylin Downs, a Ventura County REALTOR®, works with clients to understand local housing trends and create thoughtful real estate strategies.

Final Thoughts

While the housing market has faced challenges over the past year, improving affordability conditions are beginning to restore momentum.

Lower mortgage rates, moderating price growth, and gradually increasing inventory are helping create a more balanced environment for buyers and sellers alike.

For homeowners and buyers in Ventura County, understanding how national housing trends connect to the local market can provide valuable insight when planning a move.

If you are considering buying, selling, or downsizing in Ventura County, contact Roylin Downs at 805-850-5443 to discuss your goals and explore your options.