More Home Buyers Are Going Under Contract, But Caution Remains

The housing market is beginning to show signs of renewed activity as more buyers move forward with home purchases. After a slower start to the year, February brought a modest increase in contract signings, signaling that improving affordability is starting to bring buyers back into the market.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, rose 1.8% compared to January. While this increase is encouraging, activity remains slightly below last year’s levels, reflecting a market that is improving but still adjusting.

Why Buyers Are Starting to Re-Enter the Market

One of the main drivers behind this increase in contract activity is improving affordability.

Mortgage rates have declined compared to last year, and home price growth has slowed significantly. Together, these factors are helping more buyers qualify for loans and feel comfortable moving forward.

Even small changes in mortgage rates can influence buyer behavior. When rates dipped below 6% earlier this year, many buyers began re-engaging with the market. Although rates have since moved slightly higher, they remain more favorable than they were a year ago.

For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, these conditions are creating a window of opportunity.

Mortgage Rate Volatility Is Still a Factor

While affordability has improved, the market is not without uncertainty.

Mortgage rates continue to fluctuate due to broader economic conditions, including global tensions and inflation concerns. These shifts can impact buyer confidence, even when the actual difference in monthly payments is relatively small.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, notes that rising oil prices and global instability could push rates higher again, potentially slowing momentum.

This sensitivity to rate changes highlights how closely buyers are watching financial conditions before making a move.

Affordability Is Moving in the Right Direction

Despite ongoing challenges, several key indicators suggest that affordability is improving.

Wage growth is currently outpacing home price increases, helping offset some of the cost pressures buyers have faced in recent years. At the same time, more homes are coming onto the market, which is reducing upward pressure on prices.

The median existing-home price reached approximately $398,000 in February, rising only slightly compared to last year. This slower price growth represents a meaningful shift from the rapid increases seen in previous years.

In addition, fewer homes are selling above asking price, which suggests buyers may have more room to negotiate than they did during the peak of the market.

First-Time Buyers Are Gradually Returning

Another important trend is the return of first-time buyers.

First-time buyers accounted for 34% of home sales in February, up from the previous year. While still below long-term averages, this increase signals that improving conditions are helping more buyers enter the market.

However, purchasing a home remains a process that takes time. Buyers often need to build credit, save for a down payment, and align their timing with lease agreements or life transitions.

This means that while demand exists, it is likely to enter the market gradually rather than all at once.

Regional Differences Continue to Shape the Market

Not all regions are experiencing the same level of activity.

The Midwest, known for its relative affordability, showed the strongest growth in contract signings. Other regions, including the South and West, also experienced modest gains.

The Northeast, however, saw a decline in activity, largely due to higher home prices and limited inventory.

For markets like Ventura County, which fall within the Western region, this means activity is improving but still influenced by affordability and inventory constraints.

Local conditions, including pricing, property condition, and neighborhood demand, continue to play a major role in how homes perform.

What This Means for Ventura Buyers and Sellers

For buyers in Ventura County, the current market offers a more balanced environment than in recent years.

There may be more opportunities to explore available homes, and in some cases, more flexibility in negotiations. However, desirable homes that are well-priced and well-presented still attract strong interest.

For sellers, the opportunity remains strong, but preparation is key. Buyers today are more selective, and homes that are clean, updated, and priced appropriately are more likely to stand out.

Understanding how national trends translate to the local Ventura market is essential for making informed decisions.

Local real estate professionals like Roylin Downs help clients navigate these dynamics with clarity and strategy.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are pending home sales?
Pending home sales refer to properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. They are considered a leading indicator of future sales activity.

Are more buyers entering the market in 2026?
Yes. Improving affordability and lower mortgage rates compared to last year are encouraging more buyers to re-enter the market.

Are mortgage rates still affecting buyer behavior?
Yes. Buyers remain sensitive to rate changes, and even small fluctuations can influence timing decisions.

Is Ventura County still a competitive market?
Yes. While conditions have become more balanced, desirable homes continue to attract strong demand.

Who can help buyers and sellers navigate today’s Ventura market?
Local experts such as Roylin Downs provide guidance on pricing, timing, and strategy based on current market conditions.

Final Thoughts

The housing market is beginning to regain momentum as affordability improves and buyers cautiously return.

While challenges such as mortgage rate volatility remain, the overall direction suggests a more balanced and active market heading into the spring season.

For both buyers and sellers in Ventura County, understanding these trends can provide clarity and confidence when making real estate decisions.

If you are considering buying, selling, or planning your next move, Contact Roylin Downs at 805-850-5443 to discuss your goals and create a strategy tailored to today’s market.